Anticipating the Next Move
In pharma, every successful product launch invites a response. As soon as your Phase 3 data is released or your marketing authorization nears, competitors begin planning counter-messaging campaigns, refining claims, adjusting positioning, or engaging key opinion leaders (KOLs) to defend market share.
To stay ahead, life sciences teams must go beyond tracking competitor milestones. They need to anticipate reactions before they happen. Pharma scenario planning, when built on strong competitive intelligence (CI), transforms uncertainty into readiness. It allows cross-functional teams to test assumptions, expose vulnerabilities, and rehearse responses in advance.
Sedulo Group’s Insights-Driven Launch Planning white paper highlights that effective CI isn’t just about data collection; it’s about interpreting competitor strategy through “the lens of experience and objectivity” to refine your own positioning.
Why Counter-Messaging Matters
Counter-messaging is one of the most common and consequential forms of competitive behavior in pharma. When new Phase 3 data threatens an incumbent’s market position, competitors act swiftly to blunt impact, often before the new entrant even launches.
Typical tactics include:
- Reframing efficacy claims by emphasizing relative risk reduction or selective endpoints.
- Undermining differentiation through messaging on safety, tolerability, or patient subgroups.
- Deploying field teams early to reinforce physician loyalty.
- Leveraging relationships with KOLs and advocacy networks to shape perception.
If your teams are unprepared, these tactics can erode momentum during the critical six-month post-launch window, when 80% of a product’s long-term trajectory is set.
Scenario planning gives organizations the foresight and structure to anticipate these dynamics, prepare responses, and maintain confidence across functions.
Building Scenarios That Reflect Reality
According to Sedulo Group’s white paper, scenario planning should begin at least 18–24 months before FDA approval, ideally as part of pre-launch planning workshops. At this stage, the CI function collaborates with commercial, medical affairs, and regulatory leads to model a range of competitor responses based on how your Phase 3 data is expected to land.
Each scenario should explore:
- Competitor Response Logic – What will competitors likely do given your data strength? Will they ignore, counter-message, or accelerate new studies?
- Message Leverage Points – How might they exploit differences in endpoints, patient populations, or safety?
- Market Impact – How could HCP perception, payer sentiment, or advocacy engagement shift?
- Internal Readiness – How quickly can your teams adjust their own messaging, training, or access strategy?
By rehearsing across these scenarios, teams create adaptive playbooks, not just reactive responses.
Leveraging Simulations to Strengthen Readiness
Scenario planning is most effective when paired with competitive simulations, interactive workshops that stress-test assumptions, reveal blind spots, and strengthen cross-functional alignment.
These exercises should simulate realistic competitor reactions. For example, if a rival has historically responded to competitor launches with early peer-to-peer education campaigns, your simulation should account for that.
Competitive simulations:
- Encourage cross-functional dialogue between clinical, commercial, and medical teams.
- Surface hidden assumptions that could bias decisions.
- Ensure that launch playbooks are grounded in objectivity, not optimism.
- Help define clear “if-this-then-that” response frameworks for various scenarios.
Avoiding Common Pitfalls with Scenario Planning
Many organizations fall into predictable traps when preparing for competitive reactions. The white paper identifies several key pitfalls, and how to avoid them:
Scenario planning isn’t about predicting the future perfectly, it’s about preparing for multiple versions of it.
The Role of Objectivity
One of the strongest themes in Sedulo’s research is the need for external perspective. As Travis Koberg, CEO of Sedulo Group, explains, “If you’re not interpreting the implications of your competitor’s strategies and counter-strategies through the lens of experience and objectivity, how will you refine your own strategies and positioning on the run-up to launch?”
Outside partners bring the distance required to challenge bias, assess risk realistically, and evaluate competitive behaviors across therapeutic areas. Their role isn’t just to deliver intelligence, it’s to provide interpretation, turning insights into actionable foresight.
From Hypothesis to Action
The ultimate value of scenario planning lies in how it translates into decisions. Each exercise should end with specific action items and trigger-based plans:
- If Competitor A launches new safety data → update HCP messaging deck.
- If Competitor B secures new indication → adjust payer positioning for subpopulations.
- If Competitor C increases digital presence → accelerate KOL engagement strategy.
By integrating these triggers into operational plans, teams shift from reactive firefighting to proactive readiness.
Conclusion: Confidence in the Face of Uncertainty
The pharma launch landscape is dynamic, competitors will respond, narratives will shift, and new data will emerge. But with disciplined scenario planning, built on solid CI foundations, your team won’t be caught off guard.
Instead of reacting to surprises, you’ll be executing from a place of foresight. That’s what separates reactive organizations from launch leaders, and it’s where Sedulo Group helps clients excel.
Our team combines deep primary intelligence with structured scenario planning to help clients anticipate counter-messaging, strengthen cross-functional coordination, and sustain differentiation long after launch.
For a deeper look into how CI can empower launch success, download Sedulo’s white paper, Insights-Driven Launch Planning: A Cross-Functional Roadmap for Leveraging Market and Competitive Insights.